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Week 5 – #UpsetAlerts

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Everybody loves an upset.  Little ones, big ones, anything.  So each week, just for a little fun, I will profile, what I see in the CFBMatrix numbers, as the best upset potentials of the week.  These ARE NOT my premium picks found in Best Bets.  They all go against Vegas and their favorites to win.  Each is identified by location, coaching and talent trends as games to watch for the upset.

I will be on radio stations all over the country every week during football season to go over these upsets, talk some real picks for best bets during the week and go over any games that the CFBMatrix already pick the winner back in March.

2012 Year to Date Upset Alert Winning Percentage: 11-8

(YTD Note: 57.1% Upset Rate vs. Vegas dogs winning 17.9% of the time)

 

Whoa!  That was a week 4 to forget!  One of the absolute worst in the last 5 years.  Just brutal.  Trying to get back into the non-emotional trends of the CFBMatrix.  Its Monday 9/24 so check in daily for more UpsetAlerts that I find….

Week 5 Upsets

 

#1.  Missouri at Central Florida – Vegas opened at -3 points to the home team Knights?!?!?!!?!?  Pinkel and Co. head to Florida for a Win and Cover. Pinkel has lost 2 games in 5 years on the road when the Matrix picks the W.  The #1 Upset Alert is 3-1 this year so fear it UCF,.  I cannot believe the Gambler Fallacy supporting them being a dog.  Mizzou. All. Day.

#2. Virginia over Louisiana Tech – London is too good to be losing these types of games.  UVA at home takes care of business.

#3. Oregon State over Arizona – Beavers come in with better talent and better coaching effect.  That O4.5 on Oregon State in August is looking pretty nice

#4.  Ohio State over Michigan State – The Buckeyes are already 3 point underdogs in the eyes of the desert bookmakers.  Not in mine.  tOSU wins on the road in East Lansing

#5. Penn State over Illinois – A slight dog on the road, PSU wins straight up.

#6. Washington Over Stanford- Want a shocker?  Huskies should win this.  Apologists will want to say how much better Stanford is because they beat USC by a TD.  Bottom line is Huskies at home with slightly less talent should still win, unless Sark can’t coach them up.  I am excited about this game.  May have to roll up I-5 to watch it if I can get an invite from some fans that need some tailgate and moral support.

#7. Iowa State over Texas Tech – The Cyclones have the coach and field advantage.  If Tuberville had a better track record I would consider it but Rhoads is great and TT is subpar.  Tech has a huge talent advantage.

#8. Southern Miss  over Louisville – Well I think this sucks.  USM has looked like crap with the new head coach.  U of L looks solid.  The home field and close recruiting numbers say the system takes USM.  I am already thinking I should put this in the loss column.

Non- AQs:  A couple for fun has Southern Miss over U of L nahhh let’s just go with Colorado State over the Air Force Academy

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

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