The Bottom 5 Head Coaches in Coach Effect Rankings
I love a comparison and challenge. Today, Mr. Stewart Mandel rolled out his top ten and bottom 5 head coaches in college football. I’m not going to argue the top ten as they are simply a who’s who of win totals and success levels of the last 1-10 years. Most are guys that have long term success. The only one I would argue for his inclusion is Sumlin. Not that he didn’t have a single great year, but it was just that a single great year.
What I find interesting, and something that I hear all the time from readers, shows hosts and writers, is that his eyeball test is backed up with the CFBMatrix metrics. His top ten guys all have plus coach effect metrics in the CFBMatrix pre-season 2013 metrics. (link) His bottom 5 all have negative coach effect metrics as well.
Skip some reading and Listen))) Coach Effect 2013 pre-Season Podcast
However, just for debate, I feel he is missing the boat on a few guys that need to be recognized.
- Lane Kiffin – Stewart has him in the bottom 5 and I have zero complaint with that other than he should be the #1 of the bottom 5. Lane has under performed his talent at EVERY job he has held as head coach. Not one single year as a positive head coach game effect. Over the last 3 years he has the worst game effect per season of any coach.
- Randy Edsall – ‘Dead man walking’ is the term to define a head coach that posts a -4 game effect or worse in his first year as a head coach in FBS football. All coaches that have done this have NEVER seen a 4th season. Randy has gone -4 and -3 in this first two season. Attrition rates are the worst of any AQ head coach in the last 4 years and recruiting at Maryland is still well below their average.
- Charlie Weis – This is more like a career ranking versus at Kansas rank. He was awful at Notre Dame (that is why I named the CBFMatrix anti-COY awards after him), he drug down a Gator program as an assistant and unbelievably had almost a bad of a year as could be posted in 2012. Even when he is canned by KU, he is still one of the worst head coaches in the Matrix of all time. Also in Stew’s bottom 5.
- Mack Brown - How Mack didn’t make the bottom 5, I may never know. But I do know this. No other coach has had a better ratio of lack of attrition and recruited talent the last 7 years than Mack and his staff. And in that period, he has the single worst record of any top 10 recruiter. His 7 year coach effect profile is so poor, that he has no peers as they have all been fired over the last 5 season.
- Kevin Wilson - Another dead man walking. While the Hoosiers improved in year 2, Wilson is still treading water. Recruiting has and will remain near the bottom of the Big Ten. The home loses, the OOC non-AQ team loses the list in 2 seasons is a shopping list of what not to do to keep your job as a head coach.
Honorable 1st year mentions – I don’t like putting guys on a bottom 5 list that have one year under their belt. The same as putting one hit wonders in the top ten like Sumlin.
Larry Fedora - Dead man walking. Handed a gift from the scheduling gods in 2012, all he did was go -4 game coach effect. just like he did at Southern Miss. UNC deserves better. He still has at least 3 years left to make something of this terrible effort in 2012.
Tim Beckman – The Illinois head coach is in Stewart’s bottom 5 as well. I get it. He had a ton of opportunity in his first season like Wilson in 2011. He failed just as bad, if not worse for the Illini talent levels. Dead man walking as well.
As for Stewart’s other ‘bottom 5′, Ferentz is a negative coach effect guy and has underperformed his talent and schedule the last 5 years. Hawkeyes fans are probably sick of his failures but they are not terrible. If he does choke away a gift from the scheduling gods this year, go ahead and fire him. And the other guy from some non-AQ school? Who cares? Southern Miss already fired the worst head coach in non-AQ history after one year.